KONRAD YAKABUSKI

Monday, Apr. 23, 2012

Mitt Romney was not betraying any secrets when he was overheard last week telling a group of donors that dismal Republican polling among Hispanics “spells doom for us.”

That writing has been on the wall for some time now. But it seems most Republicans figure doomsday is far enough off – in 2016 or later – that they can afford to fight another election on the backs of Latinos. The incredibly shrinking GOP base demands it.

Mr. Romney may either be the last Republican candidate to get away with the tactic, winning the White House while overwhelmingly losing Latinos, or the first to suffer the consequences of a permanent demographic shift that will transform U.S. politics.

The presumptive Republican nominee spent the primary season taking a hard line on illegal immigration, rejecting even modest reforms that could build bridges with Hispanics.

“I have no earthly idea what Mitt Romney is going to try to tell Latinos,” said Matt Barreto, a University of Washington political science professor, in an interview. “If I were betting, I would say he gets 25 per cent of the Latino vote on election day.”

While Republicans routinely suggest Latino views on social issues make Hispanics a natural GOP constituency, Prof. Barreto, founder of an independent polling firm called Latino Decisions, called that idea “a myth.” Hispanics are increasingly liberal, he said.

What’s more, they express overwhelming support for President Barack Obama’s health-care reform law, legislation that Mr. Romney has vowed to neuter on his first day in the Oval Office.

Still, no issue mobilizes Hispanic voters like immigration reform.

To be sure, the estimated 11 million overwhelmingly Hispanic, illegal residents in the United States cannot vote. But there are 21 million Latino citizens who can, and most of them have an illegal relative, friend or neighbour.

Mr. Obama may have reneged on his promise to implement comprehensive immigration reform, including a path to citizenship for those in the country illegally, during in his first year in office. But a Republican Party that is openly hostile to illegal immigrants and their kin has left Latino voters with no place else to go.

This week, when the U.S. Supreme Court hears oral arguments on the constitutionality of a controversial Arizona law aimed at curbing illegal immigration, Hispanic voters will be once again reminded who their friends are. Expect Republicans nationwide to call on the court to uphold the legislation, which by any measure smacks of mean-spiritedness.

Not long ago, Mr. Romney hailed the Arizona law – which aims to encourage illegal immigrants to leave the state or face constant harassment by local police – as “a model,” and took on its chief architect as an adviser to his campaign.

The court hearing will dominate the U.S. Spanish-language media this week, reminding Hispanics that Mr. Romney sided with the anti-immigration Arizona Republicans who passed the law. No matter how much he tries to finesse his views, he cannot erase the tapes of him hailing the legislation.

Last week, Mr. Romney indicated to donors that he thinks he can win over just enough Latino voters – he does not need a majority of them – to snatch the White House in November by tapping into their dissatisfaction with Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy.

At the Palm Beach, Fla., fundraiser where he was overheard, Mr. Romney also reportedly called for “a Republican Dream Act.” Florida Senator Marco Rubio has been crafting such a bill, though he has been vague about its contents.

The real Dream Act aimed to provide a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants brought to the United States as children, as long as they attend college or join the military. It was voted down in the Senate in 2010 as five conservative Democrats sided with Republicans to uphold a filibuster.

Putting Mr. Rubio, the bilingual son of Cuban immigrants, on the GOP ticket is seen by some Republicans as a way of appealing to Latino voters. Early polls suggest otherwise.

But without a modest breakthrough among Latinos, Mr. Romney is tempting fate. A Pew Research Center poll last week had him trailing Mr. Obama among Hispanic voters by 40 percentage points. With that kind of deficit, Mr. Romney would need to win massive majorities among white voters in key states to carry the election in November.

Such a dismal showing would make it nearly impossible for Mr. Romney to win Florida, Nevada and Colorado, where Hispanics account for about 15 per cent of voters. GOP-friendly Cuban Americans are no longer a majority of Latino voters in Florida and without making inroads among other Hispanics there, Mr. Romney risks losing that state.

Even Arizona, one of the reddest states despite an electorate that is 19 per cent Hispanic, could be in play if Mr. Romney cannot find a way to woo more Latino voters.

Mr. Obama won 67 per cent of the Hispanic vote in 2008. And though he has been accused of taking Hispanics for granted, he did put the first Latina on the Supreme Court.

Last week, the Obama campaign launched Spanish-language television ads in Florida, Colorado and Nevada. The President has Desperate Housewives star Eva Longoria and San Antonio’s charismatic 37-year-old mayor, Julian Castro, stumping for him.

For Republicans, it may spell doom sooner rather than later.

Jan 4, 2012

The winner of last night’s Iowa caucuses dismissed the runner-up, Rick Santorum, as someone who doesn’t have the organization to win the nomination or the right experience to create jobs as president.

“We have very different backgrounds. I spent my life, the first 25 years in the private sector. I know a great deal about how jobs are created, how they come and how they go, and I think Rick has spent most of life in the governmental sector. Nothing wrong with that experience, but it’s very different I think if you want to get the economy going again,” Mitt Romney told me on “GMA.”

Romney only beat Santorum by eight votes, and he outspent the former Pennsylvania senator by a 50 to 1 margin on television ads – something the former Massachusetts governor said was because he’s focusing his efforts on a national campaign.

“Rick has focused his effort, and I think in a wise way, entirely on Iowa. I’ve been campaigning in other states, putting together the kind organization which I believe will get me the 1150 delegate I need. So let me tell you I’m going to take every win I can possibly get and get every delegate I can possibly get,” he said.

The voters of Iowa showed that Romney has won their minds, but not their hearts. According to the entrance polls the very conservative vote fell to Santorum, while Romney won perhaps the more pragmatic vote of who is the person to defeat Obama.

“I think people have to hear me more and more, see my record as the Massachusetts governor and remember that I ran four years ago and that Mike Huckabee and I were the conservative choices in that campaign. We got beaten by a very strong campaigner in John McCain but I’ll just have to get my message across the country,” Romney said.

Santorum is Romney’s prime opponent “at this stage,” he said. But heading into New Hampshire former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has also promised a tough challenge, taking out a full page ad in the Union Leader calling Romney a “timid Massachusetts moderate” and a “liar” on CBS yesterday.

I asked Romney if the term “liar” was out of bounds.

“It’s pretty heated rhetoric obviously. I think he’s just really angry, disappointed. I mean, he was leading in the polls here by a pretty wide margin. One of the things I feel good about is having come from way behind just a few weeks ago to come to a point where we’re in a virtual tie for the finish,” he said.

As for whether Romney will stick by his previous prediction of winning the Republican nomination?

“I sure plan on winning the nomination. It’s no sure thing. I can’t predict how that will happen but I think if I do my job, if my team is able to do a good job, why, we ought to be able to post pretty well against President Obama down the road,” he said.

Romney Turns Focus to New Hampshire .

JANUARY 4, 2012,

The Republican race for president moved to New Hampshire Wednesday with one fewer contender as Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann dropped her bid after a dismal finish in Iowa.

Mrs. Bachmann was atop the Iowa field last summer, but like several other GOP candidates, her star faded as other nominees took turns as fleeting frontrunners.

“Last night, the people of Iowa spoke with a very clear voice, and so I have decided to stand aside,” Mrs. Bachmann told supporters in Des Moines. “I have no regrets.”

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney meanwhile hoped to build on his razor-thin Iowa victory, and …